FAA Forecasts Passenger Volume Back to Pre-2001 Levels

March 21, 2005

FAA Forecasts Passenger Volume Back to Pre-2001 Levels
March 21, 2005 – According to the Federal Aviation Administration, the number of people flying in the United States will return to pre-2001 levels this year, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4 percent expected over the next 12 years.

The FAA Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016, reports that last year 688.5 million flew on U.S. commercial air carriers. By 2015, the number of passengers is expected to top one billion.

"Deregulation has delivered a dynamic industry where consumers are driving change. Airline customers have more options, at lower fares, based on more timely information, than ever before – and our economy is better off as a result," said U.S. Secretary of Transportation Norman Y. Mineta.

According to the report, the regional/commuter airlines are projected to experience the greatest increase in passenger volume among commercial air carriers, up 15.4 percent from last year. The FAA defines regionals/commuters as airlines that generally operate aircraft of 70 seats or less, with a main mission to link passengers to a larger affiliated, or code-shared, airline. The regional jet fleet is expected to undergo the largest increase, from 1,630 aircraft in 2004 to 2,960 by 2016.

Despite the increased price of fuel and a slower rate of growth than regional airlines, large domestic carriers also are forecast to see an increase in passengers from 502.2 million in 2004 to 700 million by 2016, equal to 2.8 percent each year.

Air travel to and from the United States is also on the rise. International passenger travel on large commercial and regional air carriers increased from 54.1 million in 2003 to 61.3 million in 2004, an increase of 13.4 percent. Over the 12-year forecast period, the largest increases in international travel are slated to occur on Latin American routes at a rate of 5.5 percent more passengers annually.

The FAA bases its forecast of sustained aviation growth on economic projections from the Office of Management and Budget. A copy of FAA’s Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016 can be found on the web at http://www.faa.gov/.